Saturday, May 21, 2016

2016-05-21 Saturday - Financial Armageddon Looming?

This post is a placeholder for news that I believe foreshadows a potential tsunami of financial  Armageddon that will eventually sweep the shores of the world economies.

I fear the clock has ticked past midnight, the 'patients' (Stock Markets, Corporations, Central Banks, Sovereign Nations, Global Economies, etc.) - like crack-addled drug addicts - are addicted to debt-binge spending with easy money a la  Quantitative Easing and Zero Interest Rate Policies (ZIRP). The 'patients' may already be in the later terminal stages of their disease.  Or like the zombie undead - don't quite realize that they have already been embalmed and pickled.

There may be precious little time for people to take personal action to protect their financial assets...but it is impossible to predict when the trigger/avalanche event will occur. I hope we have somewhere between 5-10 years (see the 2016 May links below) - but I may be optimistic in that regard.

I fear the masses will be caught unaware - because they blithely wander on in a bucolic haze, being fed a constant IV drip of delusion and denial by the mass media and their governments - with concerns about the tens-of-trillions in unfunded liabilities being nothing to worry about - that future growth will heal all ills.


2016 May
2014 January

Saturday, May 7, 2016

2016-05-07 Saturday - Stan Druckenmiller Sohn Conference Presentation

It seems to me that this article, written by Stan Druckenmiller, concisely and clearly articulates the risks that the current stock market represents. So much of what I see in the market reminds me of the calm before the storm of the dot.com bubble bursting in 2000...and when markets peaked in 2007-2008.

Thursday, May 5, 2016

2016-05-05 Thursday - The Omega Investment Protocol

In my travels, I have had a few brushes with danger and global risks...

I saw first-hand the run-away inflation and economic collapse that threatened Turkey in the early 1990s...

I had the good fortune to have exited an area 72 hours before the total destruction of what I considered to be a 'safe' area [Beirut, 2005 - the destruction of my hotel, when the former Prime Minister was assassinated by a car bomb].

Then there was the 2006 car bomb detonated near of the U.S. Consulate in Karachi...

1981, Egypt, Sadat was assassinated - and 100K soldiers of the Libyan army massed on the Egyptian border, threatening to invade - as we of the 24th Infantry Division, Rapid Deployment Force, camped in the desert 40 miles West of Giza for a month...

The perception that your world (as you experience it) is 'safe', is illusory. The perception that 'safety' has any continuity - is a delusion.

My training as a soldier taught me that being prepared is first-and-foremost - a mindset. It is the act of thinking, anticipating, training - and sometimes, it is a matter of positioning equipment in anticipation of events.

What would you do if you had a strong conviction that within a 6-12 month window, or sooner, the world markets were going to be severely disrupted?

What preparations would you make?

What would you do if you had a strong conviction that within a 6-12month window, or sooner, basic services in your city were going to be severely disrupted?

What preparations would you make?

What would you do if you had a strong conviction that those two scenarios were strongly correlated - and that you would be lucky if the disruptions were limited to __just__ those aspects?

What preparation would you make?

Having a plan - with clear, specific, and tangible steps to be taken - that's what I refer to as
"The Omega Investment Protocol".

Having thought through such scenarios, when/if you need to respond to a local or global escalation in risks - you'll have eliminated doubt, delay, indecision, confusion - and will be prepared to take action.

Saturday, February 27, 2016

2016-02-26 Friday - SPY Chart

Can you see the exhaustion now?

2016-08-17 UPDATE
The snap-back and vertical lift-off - in the absence of any concrete improvements in GDP, Earnings, or Employment -is NOT the "ALL CLEAR" that you might think it means. 

 

Saturday, July 11, 2015

2015-07-10 Friday - SPY Chart

If charts could talk...


What do you see?
A top?
A lull before the Bull charges North again?

I see a tired market...running on fumes...